A confluence of factors will cause North American production over the year’s final three quarters to be the lowest for the period in 10 years, according to the latest report from Ward’s AutoForecasts. Fortunately, a strong showing in the first quarter will keep the calendar year comparison a bit more favorable, with total 2006 output at a 5-year low.
Production in the first three months totaled 4.29 million units, compared with 4.09 million in first-quarter 2005, and the highest for the period since 4.8 million in 2000.
But the outlook beyond that leaves calendar year output at 16.05 million, 1.6% below 2005’s 16.32 million, and the lowest since 2001’s 15.82 million, says Haig Stoddard, Manager — Industry Analysis for Ward’s Automotive Group, publisher of Ward’s AutoForecasts.
The final nine months of the year will fall to its lowest aggregate level since 1996. April-December output will total 11.76 million, compared with 1996’s 11.64 million.
That is 4%, or some 463,000 units, below the 12.22 million vehicles built during like-2005 and more than 10% below the period’s record 13.13 million units in 1999.
Lower demand from year-ago for North American-built vehicles is the primary reason for the production slowdown.
Adding fuel to the fire are slowdowns for the market’s two biggest auto makers, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. Both have been particularly hard hit by the market shift away from midsize SUVs. To shore up profit margins, both have cut back on incentive spending and sales to rental fleets.
Additionally, the two have cut production capacity through plant closures and shift reductions at selected facilities. GM will be cutting more capacity in the third quarter, when it eliminates third-shift output at three plants.
Product-cycle timing also will play a role by forcing production interruptions that will negatively impact output. The Big Three all have plants scheduled for major retooling efforts in the latter half of the year, particularly GM, which will begin the changeover to its all-new GMT900 fullsize pickups.
GM and Ford’s available straight-time output for the year will fall by nearly 500,000 units compared with 2005. In spite of this, industry capacity as a whole will drop by just 100,000 units from prior-year due to increases by most of the remaining manufacturers.
The industry will have available straight-time output of 17.75 million units in 2006, well above what actually will be produced.
Another factor limiting North American production is increased sales of imported vehicles.
Through April, North American sales of imported vehicles increased 1.8% over year-ago, while domestically produced cars and trucks declined 0.4%. Import share of the total market is 21.6%, which would be the highest since 22.3% in 1989 if that mark holds for the year.
05/31, 2:47 PM
posted by:
digitalzombie
that’s because they’ve close so many plants down.
05/31, 3:02 PM
posted by:
aj
Lets hope it’s the lowest. Come on, if what you’re building isn’t putting a nickel in your pocket, why keep building it? I’m surprised it took 10 years. And, if they’re really that shocked about “the market shift away from midsize SUVs”, then they just aren’t using their noggins at all.
05/31, 3:06 PM
posted by:
gsh
wow imports only have a 21.6% total market share in NA? what are all the import haters b1tching about?
05/31, 3:14 PM
posted by:
VDub
is anyone surprised?
05/31, 3:15 PM
posted by:
Jon
And the reason they closed plants down is because they weren’t selling enough cars to keep the plants open.
Jon.
05/31, 3:18 PM
posted by:
Jon
I wonder what they count as ‘imports’? I wonder if import includes foreign-owned carmakers that produce cars in the US (Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, etc…).
Jon.
05/31, 3:42 PM
posted by:
DubTwo
21%? http://www.autospectator.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=2847
Toyota had 17, Honda has 11, Nissan has 7… The fact they have this much is still sad. Look at the market share broken down in Japan. Toyota has over 50% and Honda has another large chunk. If you can’t win in your home field, where can you win? GM/Ford/Chrysler have less than 1% in Japan??? Anyone want to look that up? GM has 21% vs. Toyota’s 17% in the USA. This was the end of 05, I’m thinking it will be visa-versa in 2007.
05/31, 4:51 PM
posted by:
common sense
notice that not much is said about chrysler. i know there not doing there best, but out of “the big tree” they certainly are winning. ever since chrysler merged with benz, and ever since they braught back the hemi, chrysler has really been killing ford and gm. i predict that soon DCX will overtake ford and gm as top dog in the U.S.A. and hopefully, gm and ford will just fall apart and die!
GO DAIMLERCHRYSLER!!!!!!!!!
05/31, 5:24 PM
posted by:
British_Rover
To #7 Japan has many restrictions on importing vehicles into Japan. Japan has many restrictions on importing almost anything into Japan that is not raw materials for industry. The tariffs on imported goods in japan are completly insane. Just for example the Tariff on impoted rice is something like 1000%. If the US put the same tarriffs on goods imported from other countres that Japan does then you could not buy any imported vehicle for any way near its current price.
05/31, 6:01 PM
posted by:
Anita Manbadly
I hope Skoda launches in the US
05/31, 9:14 PM
posted by:
DC
Skoda…
That’d be interesting. I’d definitely check one out if it happened.
06/01, 2:14 AM
posted by:
Josh
As Americans you are witnessing the fall of our counrty…. and you are glad its so sad…. what is we go to war with these countries and all our industy has ben outsourced? where do we build… we as a people are lazy and rather take from the japaneese than support oursleves… we should learn and use and support… buy american or leave america… for its your fault we die as a country….
06/01, 2:21 AM
posted by:
common sense
people will buy GM and Ford once they get there head out of there ass and start building good quality vehicles, if they would build good vehicles then people would buy them, but they dont. people only buy the best. the ricers arn’t killing america, dumb ass exec’s are killing america.
06/01, 3:09 AM
posted by:
Captain Planet
Americans aren’t stupid, if GM and Ford made good quality vehicles at good prices people would buy them. It is called competition. Instead of building quality vehicles they are now offering gas rebates to sell cars: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13071993/
06/01, 5:17 AM
posted by:
Niels
All your quality complaints are sheer bull****. That’s the only thing you have to support your arguments against American cars, but until you actually drive and own an American car that’s at most 3 years old, get back in your import and shut your ass up. Do you honestly think companies can’t turn around? If Toyota turned from a **** laughable carmaker [just like they are now] into a profitable business, what makes you think GM, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler can’t turn around their image? Explain that.
06/01, 5:22 AM
posted by:
Anonymous
Ford invented the assembly line. Oldsmobile invented the automatic transmission. Chrysler invented the day/night mirror, power windows, and an advanced electronic ignition system. Buick first used the turn signal, and Ford was first to invent and use the electric trunk release.
I don’t see no **** Toyota or Honda innovations.
And FYI, BMW invented regenerative braking, not Toyota, and hybrid powerplants for cars have been around for years.
06/01, 5:25 AM
posted by:
alan
At least Ford, GM, and Chrysler don’t have hundreds of recalls for issues as serious as steering failure. That’s the fate of the ‘all-mighty’ Prius
06/01, 11:15 AM
posted by:
Patrick
im not surprised, the quality and reliability of US autos is so low compared to the Japanese (cue the ignorant patriotic assholes’ insults against “imports lovers”), and thats not an opinion, its a fact backed up by statistics. so really, everyone has pretty much seen this coming, the domestics have some serious work to do.
06/01, 11:17 AM
posted by:
Patrick
at least toyota doesnt have its roofs falling off of its cars like the corvette convertible. thats pathetic. keep whining about prius recalls but we have 2 and have had 0 problems, and having your roof flying off is considerably more serious than any “steering failure” recall you’re refering to w/ the prius, do yourself a favor and dont talk
06/01, 11:24 AM
posted by:
Anonymous
Show me the facts #18 where domestics are way below in quality and reliability as compared to the imports. Please post your unbiased sources.
06/01, 11:26 AM
posted by:
Anonymous
http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2005/05/16/081734.html
06/01, 11:28 AM
posted by:
Anonymous
Several new GM products took top honors in their segments. Pontiac’s G6 medium sedan won out over Toyota and Honda entries, as did the Buick Rainier medium sport utility vehicle (SUV).
I could go on with more independent reports that show domestic right up there with Japenese imports. Quit drinking the koolaid from Japan,Inc.
06/01, 12:47 PM
posted by:
MuuMuu
I don’t care. I’d still rather drive something European or Japanese. The domestic namplates lack any style or class whatsoever.
06/01, 1:04 PM
posted by:
Anonymous
That’s a bull**** statement there, MuuMuu. American cars come in such a wide variety of style and class nowadays, they at least tie with the imports.
06/01, 1:07 PM
posted by:
Anonymous
You have to Priuses, Patrick? What kind of dilrod has two of the same car? That’s plain pathetic. You don’t realize they cost more to own in the long run than conventional cars? You’re just losing twice the money. Their batteries are worse for the environment than engine emissions. Get a clue.
06/01, 1:42 PM
posted by:
Anonymous
QUOTE From Patrick:
“and having your roof flying off is considerably more serious than any “steering failureâ€? recall you’re refering to w/ the prius, do yourself a favor and dont talk.”
The chances of the roof flying off and killing someone are maybe 50/50 at best. The chances of crashing from a steering failure is like, Hmmm. 100%.
Your logic lacks substance. LOL!
06/02, 4:23 PM
posted by:
1c3d0g
Patrick always lacked logic in the first place, so you’re right.
And MuuMuu, shut that ass of yours you call a mouth.