As the story has gone for the past few decades, changing market conditions and shifting consumer demand have once again caught the Big Three flatfooted. Thanks to $4 a gallon gasoline, trucks and SUVs are out and compact cars and crossovers are in. With General Motors, Ford and Chrysler still heavily relying on the former rather than the latter, the Big Three are hoping to hang on until 2010 when things should begin to turnaround.
So what will change so drastically in the next two years that could potentially return the Detroit automakers to profitability?
Right about the start of 2010, the Big Three are expected to see their first savings from the recently inked national contract with the UAW. Thanks to the new two-tier wage system and lower health care costs, each of the Detroit automakers are expected to save billions per year. By 2010 GM could be saving $5 billion a year with Ford seeing a savings of $1.2 billion, according to the Detroit Free Press. Chrysler has yet to comment on how much it expects to save.
Another reason for optimism about 2010 is that a new crop of fuel-efficient vehicles should be hitting the market by then. GM is preparing an all-new small car for the 2010 model year — with several other compact crossovers planned — and Ford’s compact and efficient Fiesta will hit U.S. showrooms some time in 2010.
Chrysler — which is widely regarded as the worst off of the Detroit three — could even see a resurgence in 2010. Chrysler will begin selling a re-badged version of a Nissan small car in 2010 and could even have a Chrysler-badged Chery A1 compact car to market by then.
However, 2010 is not a guaranteed turning point for the automakers of the mitten state. 2010 is “a make-or-break year,” Sean McAlinden, chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research, told the Detroit Free Press. “Ford has some good stuff coming. GM should do well. … They have some wonderful stuff in the pipeline. 2010 is the big question mark.”



06/02, 5:00 PM
posted by:
DeansterTJ
LLN is straying further and further from actual auto news with each passing day.
BTW, I’m sure the big three are also “holding on” until 2011, and maybe 2012 too…
06/02, 5:09 PM
posted by:
xyunya
I agree with Deanster, this article does not make sense. How you get billions of savings from vehicles that you don’t sell, eroding market share and declining profit per vehicle? What former “big” currently “medium” 3 had learned from competition about building smaller vehicle at competitive price and still make profit off sales? Granted they are expecting 2010 to be better then 2008-2009, but it is like telling shareholder:”we’ll do better in 3-4 years, kiss your investment goodbye for now”.
06/02, 5:10 PM
posted by:
NoNameDenton1
The Detroit 3 said they would turn their slump around in 2010
06/02, 5:16 PM
posted by:
kitko
I wonder how the two-tier wages system for several thousands of employees compare with several millions of customers voting with their wallets.
So what exactly is going to happen in two years? Toyota will excercise a friendly takeover of GM?
06/02, 5:31 PM
posted by:
xyunya
As olds307 says ” In Soviet Russia slump turns you around”. I’ll believe in turn around when there are some concrete plans coupled with actions. So far mediocre 2 (one already in private hands and out of equation) complaining about price of oil hurting their sales, like gas for Toyota cost less (well in essence it is since there is a list of fuel sipping Toyotas to choose from).
06/02, 6:05 PM
posted by:
inline6
This article is beyond ridiculous.
“Big three trying to hold on until 2010″ sounds to me like LLN thinks they’ll go out of business before then, or is yellow journalistic scaremongering.
There is no way, I repeat, NO WAY any of the Big 3 will fail to make it to 2010 and well beyond.
No matter what you think about these companies’ offerings, this kind of journalism is non-news, sophomoric, and insults the intelligence and wastes the time of anyone who knows or cares one damn bit about the auto industry.
06/02, 6:14 PM
posted by:
jimmy8
inline6 pretty much hits the nail on the head!
06/02, 6:16 PM
posted by:
howsmydriving
It’s the government’s fault, in a way. Gas was previously so affordable (in relative terms) that automobile consumption becamse too conspicuous, leading to excesses like behemoth SUV’s, surely one of the darkest chapters in motoring history.
Government should tax gasoline so that it’s never too affordable. When demand exceeds supply, the tax can be lessened or lifted, thereby achieving some equilibrium in price.
Without a tax, gas prices are subject to wide swings, thereby impacting the domestic manufacturers every time the price takes a sharp swing upwards.
06/02, 8:45 PM
posted by:
Supermann1
LLN you mean the medium 2.5? Get your writing sorted out.
06/02, 10:06 PM
posted by:
johnnycanuck
Whatever you may think of the journalism, how else would you describe the state of our domestic auto industry these days? They’re getting their asses kicked plain and simple. I understand everyone being so defensive, but to take such offence with the term ‘hanging on’ implies the sentiment may be closer to the truth than most of you are willing to admit.
06/03, 10:12 AM
posted by:
xyunya
johnnycanuck, is 110% right. Ford has a very good chance not being around in 2011. The saving grace is Kerkorian and his infusion of cash into the company stock, otherwise stock would be around $4 (just like gas).
GM stuck in neutral, but that’s were they’ve been in the past few years. GM was making money (and spending even faster) during go-go real estate market and pimping Hummers like suburbia was going to war. Granted, Toyota, Nissan and even Honda to a degree, tried GM success formula, but “domestic” 3 put all eggs in one basket. GM has a god chance of survival (they have cash on hand), Ford is much less so. The story is open on Chrysler: being a sick man for a while and owned by private equity who knows when Cerberus investors will say enough is enough and either close the doors or sell pieces to some Chinese or Indian company.
06/03, 10:51 AM
posted by:
Need4SSpeed
The whole U.S economy will be screwed (even more than now) if one of the big 3 goes under. Think of all the the jobs (well still left) and manufacturing (well that is still left) and business with parts manufacturers and suppliers that would suffer. Which is why the federal government and GM helped Chrysler stay out of bankrupcy in the 70’s. It will also affect the other domestics as well so GM, Ford, and Chrysler all need to survive.
Basically when George W. Bush said the Feds wouldn’t bail any of the companies out a couple years back, I remember hearing Toyota say they’d even help. They’ve got the money. Also you need at least some competition because it is healthy, (and at the same time prevents you from being a monopoly.)
06/03, 11:12 AM
posted by:
jimmy8
Ford has 28 Billion cash money in the bank. Not tied up in assets. CASH. They could have paid for the big loan they took out a year back, but being smart they saved their money. No company with that much liquid cash, not to mention the huge amount of assets they have, will go away anytime soon. Get your facts straight. Ford and GM are here to stay, with or without Kekorian. The one that may have some dark years ahead is Chrysler.
06/03, 3:41 PM
posted by:
bigp
so damn dumm
06/03, 5:12 PM
posted by:
nitinsharma1000
wheres HHR
06/03, 5:12 PM
posted by:
nitinsharma1000
sorry HRR
06/03, 7:57 PM
posted by:
DialM4Speed
They already have small cars and crossovers. Now they just have to eliminate all the luxury suv’s and scale the trucks WAY back. People will still need trucks but not every Joe Knuckle head will be buying them.
06/04, 7:22 PM
posted by:
F1tifoso
There’s no opinion in there.
Everything stated is fact – the Big 3, like usual, plowed ahead with plans and ignored the signs just like in the early 80’s,,, (rising fuel prices didn’t happen overnight, it’s gone on for 5 years, heck even since 85 cent gas in 1999…) – that is a fact. Flatfooted is pretty nice way of saying they were idiots, which they were – or they ignored it – those are the only 2 possibilites, period.
So they clearly are saying “hey we can change” – just like the bad husband to his wife – let’s see if they really quit hanging out at strip clubs and get to work…
Cadillac is proof they can, and this is how GM used to run things in the 50’s and 60’s/ Buick is next – direct injection should already be the current mantra across the board, etc –
Ford is behind of course, but they always have been, choosing to follow GM and design for the masses once it was clear what the masses wanted.
Chrylser is still Chrysler – nothing has changed. Private ownership may actually do them some good finally…
The CEO’s and managers are extremely comfy rather than broke after their poor decisions – reminds you of the French before the beheadings in the 17th century. In Japan a CEO that fails is dishonored – it should be that way here too.