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CAFE standards have domestic automakers looking toward diesels

01/02/2008, 9:15 AM

By Drew Johnson

With the recently passed CAFE standards, domestic automakers are looking to new technologies to help them achieve the mandated 35 mpg by 2020. Despite the fuel economy gains of a hybrid vehicles, diesel powertrains could be shaping up to be the most viable option for the Big Three to meet the new requirements.

While diesel-powered vehicles currently make up only about 3.2% of the light vehicle market, that number is expected to grow in the coming years. J.D. Power and Associates predicts that diesel sales will climb to 1.27 million units by 2012 and will make up 15% of the market by 2018.

“If we have to get 35 miles per gallon by 2020, we can’t maintain the current makeup of the fleet,” said Mike Omotoso, J.D. Power’s senior manager of global powertrain. “With continuing high gas prices, consumers are looking for vehicles with good fuel economy, and that’s where diesel can deliver.” Diesel powertrains can improve a vehicles fuel economy by about 30%.

General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all have plans to use a diesel powerplant in their light-duty pickup trucks, a plan that could soon spill over into their passenger cars.

However, diesels still have some hurdles to clear before they become mainstream. Most U.S. consumers still view diesels as the loud, dirty and slow engines from the 1970s and 80s — the exact opposite of modern clean diesels.

Diesels will also have to overcome the price difference with their gasoline counterparts. Though diesels do command about a $1,655 premium over gas models, that cost can quickly be made up in fuel savings. According to The Detroit News, if you were to drive a diesel 12,000 miles per year, it would take less than four years for the diesel option to pay for itself. In contrast, it would take more than 10 years for a $5,000 hybrid option to pay for itself.

Look for diesel technology to first emerge in trucks and SUV, where the most gains can be made. “The market is ripe, the question will be consumer confidence,” John Pinson, GM’s group manager of diesel engineering, told The Detroit News. “You start with the engines that consume the most fuel, big pickups and SUVs, where the payoff for the customer is best.”

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01/02, 9:19 AM

posted by:

celeron

But will these engines be avaliable on affordablr cars? Probably not, they will only be avaliable for big SUVs.

01/02, 9:50 AM

posted by:

lucklaster

Scale and market will make them less expensive and also more dependable and aftermarket friendly. Then imagine a performance race – sounds good.

01/02, 10:04 AM

posted by:

casualobserver

The question is, will the EPA synchronize its emission standards with Europe/Japan? That would help to make more diesels possible in the US and reduce the cost.
It seems that the European emissions philosophy on diesels is “better than last year”, while the US EPA standards are “better than currently possible”.

01/02, 10:08 AM

posted by:

SwerveEarly

What does an entire room full of U.S. auto execs pulling their heads out of their asses sound like?

01/02, 10:30 AM

posted by:

johnnycanuck

You’re close SwerveEarly. I think most of North America needs to hear the same thing.

01/02, 10:47 AM

posted by:

SS4LIFE

Well I don’t know how the price of diesel is around everyone else either in North America, U.S, Canada or across the pond but in Michigan the price of diesel like 2 or three months ago completely bypassed the price of premium making it more expensive then regualar gasoline. Its price used to be more consistent and was even lower than regular gasoline. I think the reason for this is a combination of the increased demand for it and speculation for the push in diesel fuel. I don’t care how efficient or cleaner diesel has become, if it costs more than premium then I’ll never own a diesel

Granted diesel for medium duty or larger pickup trucks is fine, and I guess the domestic auto companies are going to need to do something to obtain that mandatory 35mpg CAFE standard but I’ll stick with a regular turbo engine.

01/02, 10:49 AM

posted by:

lucklaster

It wasn’t very long ago that US makers had other distractions, gas was cheaper, the media hadn’t scared so many yet and diesel was going to be a hard sell in the US. Most Americans would have scoffed at driving a diesel family sedan, SUV or even a light truck. Remember you don’t try to please the few. Forces have changed. So look what’s next.

01/02, 11:10 AM

posted by:

Fletch

The aftermarket potential of turbo diesel in lighter, agile sedans is exciting. Most of the truck market chips already have fuel economy mode, and various performance maps.

01/02, 11:46 AM

posted by:

Renton

We should have been having this discussion 5 years ago.

Americans in general are retarded when it comes to cars, “The Industry” has a lot to blame for this retardation. They crammed gas guzzleing pigs down our throats and told every soccer mom in the world that she needed one, or she was not being a good mom.

The Feds should have changed the diesel emissions on cars years ago, now we are playing catch up again.

We should be able to walk into any delership in the US and be able to get a diesel car at a reasonable price. They make ‘em, they are just illegal to sell them hear.

The emissions laws need to be rethought, it is disgusting they have such myopic vision.

01/02, 12:18 PM

posted by:

SwerveEarly

Money talks. Its not retardation, its economics and tradition.

01/02, 12:30 PM

posted by:

lucklaster

This is what they (women) said-
“I like being high up” – “I can cram a lot of groceries in” – “I can cram a lot of kids and groceries in” – “I like feeling like I’m in control” – “I feel safe” – “I can see well in them” – etc, etc, etc.
In the future they will say the same things about their diesel powered ones.

01/02, 12:31 PM

posted by:

Jazz

Amen Renton.

01/02, 12:35 PM

posted by:

swamprat

This article reminds me of the dribble coming out of an AP press release with this statement – “Most U.S. consumers still view diesels as the loud, dirty and slow engines from the 1970s and 80s — the exact opposite of modern clean diesels.”

I think if they saw a normal-sized car that got economy car gas mileage, even the US buying public would take a look and ask for a test ride. It will be interesting to see what type of fuel mileage the new VW and Honda diesel engines coming in 2009 will actually achieve. I wonder if they will ever get here….

01/02, 12:36 PM

posted by:

CA36GTP

Hahaha! Let me first say I’m a big supporter of diesel expansion, but this whole situation is just too funny to me.

Anything about CAFE comes up, and you have the usual posts about how the government should’ve regulated emissions/economy more. Now diesel comes up and the posts are about how the government is screwing up the availability of diesel by over-regulation.

Which is it guys? Do you want the Imperial Federal Government telling you what you can and can’t drive or not? You can’t have it both ways.

01/02, 12:39 PM

posted by:

CA36GTP

Agreed, swamprat. The general consumer is an idiot who doesn’t know crap about his engine. I know too many people who buy Toyotas and Chryslers because they think they are getting great cars, who don’t know how many cylinders they have under the hood much less horsepower or displacement figures, and I’m willing to bet they sure as hell wouldn’t know a gas engine from a diesel on a good day. All the average buyer cares about is those two big numbers on the sticker that tell you how far you’re going to get on a $3+ gallon of gas.

01/02, 12:56 PM

posted by:

davebo

CA36GTP: I agree that we can’t have it both ways. I wouldn’t want the U.S. to lower emissions standards just so we can get more miles per gallon on diesel. But if they’re making cleaner burning diesels that get good mileage, then we all win. But since it doesn’t go into effect until 2020, I fully expect American auto makers to be sitting on their asses until Q3 2019 : P

01/02, 1:25 PM

posted by:

jonnycat

Bring on the diesels. I love the smell of Diesel in the morning.

01/02, 3:13 PM

posted by:

corvette

Please bring more diesel’s to North America

01/02, 3:25 PM

posted by:

autonut

If Benz, VW & Honda can certify diesels then the rest of the industry should be able to do so as well. Or I just displayed unreasonable exuberance in relationship to US execs to assimilate reality? I think I am giving too much credit to cretins in glass houses overlooking Great Lakes. I recall when GM brought to the congress example of frugality of 1.9 L VW diesel. VW could learn the lesson from it and passed certification (yes it cost money and yes it was not easy). I wonder what was the obstacle for GM and Ford to certify their excellent diesels from Europe? Are they really so much less talented in engineering abilities on our side of the pond? Diesels will be here and they already sell 70% of all cars in Europe. Diesel engine cost couple of large more, but on resale it brings back those couple large back. And if one is leasing that difference will keep lease payments exactly the same as for gasoline engine. As far as diesel fuel costing 5% more them premium (or 15% more then regular) the egine is 25-40% more economical. Furthermore, unlike gasoline engine you can place smaller diesel under the hood and it will do the job.

01/02, 3:36 PM

posted by:

jayjc08

I think we already all knew this.

I think this also proves a point that I brought up a few posts back, in which diesels aren’t that much more expensive than gasoline engines. I think most of that premium is due to all the emission crap that US automakers have to add on to the engine, as well as it due to adding strength to certain components.

Casualobserver- I agree, but I wouldn’t want them synchronized with Europe and Japan. Some of their emission and tax policies that go along with that are crazy to apply to American vehicles, and saying forcing those taxes will reduce the size of vehicles is blasphemy (and so is raising the price of gas to discourage vehicle use). It’s another way of big companies to earn big money, atleast in my opinion and many others.

SS4Life- Here in Central NY diesel is slightly higher than gasoline (I think about 10 cents more). I don’t understand what the problem is, last time I checked diesel was easier to process and in low(er) demand (and with so many trucking businesses going out of business, I would consider the demand much lower than it already was). I have to ask and I’d like an answer from anybody, why is the price of diesel so much higher than gasoline?

Swamprat, CA36GTP- I think it’s:
A.) The media that makes the perception of diesels being unclean
B.) Hurried cars in the mid to late 70’s and 80’s with big, clunky diesel engines to reduce consumption
C.) Europe, which some streets are lined with a thin coating of black filth.

The major thing today, the media, is to blame for much of our woes with diesels. And what most consumers notice per my family, is horsepower, fuel economy, and asthetics (room, design, etc.). Not much more than that
Also, CA36GTP, I think what more and more people are asking for is not emissions to be stricter, and they were screaming that in days of the past and now, but I can safely say that 90% of them weren’t consider diesels when they said that. If you bring diesels up and the savings they can have, then I’m also sure many of them will say emissions for diesels shouldn’t be held as high regards as gasoline.

01/02, 4:15 PM

posted by:

Commodore

“In contrast, it would take more than 10 years for a $5,000 hybrid option to pay for itself.”
What we have been saying.

Hybrids make sense…
Economically? No
Environmentally? No
Easy-on-the-eyes? No

01/02, 5:16 PM

posted by:

autonut

Diesel fuel cost more in US (in some states not all) due to local taxes. Taxes on diesel are higher then gasoline in some states and especially in North East. Actually diesel produces very little CO2, but a lot of particulate (NOX). It is not harmful to environment, but by some research may be cause of lung discomfort. Emission in Europe is based on combined CO2 & NOX exhaust, CAFE requires both to be identical with disregard that NOX is not contributing to “global warming”.

01/02, 5:45 PM

posted by:

Htay9500

US diesel fuel is also a bit dirtier than the EUs.

01/02, 5:53 PM

posted by:

CTS DRIVER

but with 25 to 40 percent better mileage the higher gas diesel price makes the difference, imagine the prius for example with a diesel powered generator instead of gas, we would be talking over 70 mpg.

01/02, 8:06 PM

posted by:

autonut

Htay9500 US diesel use to be much dirtier, it is almost on par with European (almost). If EAP could (or should) mandate cleaner diesel fuel the problem could be solved easier. But the issue is how EAP calculates pollution exhaust. If it would align itself with Europe we would have better fuel economy, less consumption and less pollution as a whole.

01/02, 10:27 PM

posted by:

AxeHead

Any auto manufacturer that makes a small or midsize truck and puts a small diesel into it will corner a market that I’d buy into right now. I don’t understand why I can’t buy this vehicle today or for the last 20 years for that matter.

01/03, 2:16 AM

posted by:

Got Handling?

Low grade fuel is a massive problem for the new generation of high-performance low-emission diesels. Mercedes took a couple of Bluetec diesels to the UAE, where diesel is only used in trucks and is of a very low standard. The diesels suffered engine failure after two days!

01/03, 1:55 PM

posted by:

Impulsive

‘autonut’, NOx is the problem … it is directly responsble for SMOG. Global warming isn’t due to passenger vehicle emissions so that’s out the window.

The higher cost of diesel fuel, the higher cost of the vehicle, the higher levels of NOx … no thanks.

01/08, 3:39 PM

posted by:

jackjimturkey

Diesel needs a new PR campaign. This is the way to go.

“Most U.S. consumers still view diesels as the loud, dirty and slow engines from the 1970s and 80s.”

Somebody needs to let the consumer know about modern diesels. And, there are diesel stations all around my exurb and the next one over.

Celeron: I figure each full-line automaker will have at least one diesel car. Probably the commuter coffin. I imagine VW will be first with a diesel compact.

casualobserver: “will the EPA synchronize its emission standards with Europe/Japan? That would help to make more diesels possible in the US and reduce the cost.” Yeah, but that makes too much sense. You’d have some idiots taking that as a loss of sovereignty or something.

,
SS4LIFE: Diesel costs more, but you get better mileage. Paid $3.17 this morning. Diesel was $3.57. Let’s say I’m getting 20 mpg mixed. If I get 23 mpg in a diesel, I’m coming out ahead.

Fletch: “The aftermarket potential of turbo diesel in lighter, agile sedans is exciting.”
Yep.

davebo: I wouldn’t want the U.S. to lower emissions standards just so we can get more miles per gallon on diesel.” I wouldn’t care. Depends on how much lower the standards were, though.

AxeHead “Any auto manufacturer that makes a small or midsize truck and puts a small diesel into it will corner a market that I’d buy into right now. I don’t understand why I can’t buy this vehicle today.”

I don’t understand, wither. Maybe the consultants these companies are hiring are scaring them away with their cost estimates.

 
 
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