With the recently passed CAFE standards, domestic automakers are looking to new technologies to help them achieve the mandated 35 mpg by 2020. Despite the fuel economy gains of a hybrid vehicles, diesel powertrains could be shaping up to be the most viable option for the Big Three to meet the new requirements.
While diesel-powered vehicles currently make up only about 3.2% of the light vehicle market, that number is expected to grow in the coming years. J.D. Power and Associates predicts that diesel sales will climb to 1.27 million units by 2012 and will make up 15% of the market by 2018.
“If we have to get 35 miles per gallon by 2020, we can’t maintain the current makeup of the fleet,” said Mike Omotoso, J.D. Power’s senior manager of global powertrain. “With continuing high gas prices, consumers are looking for vehicles with good fuel economy, and that’s where diesel can deliver.” Diesel powertrains can improve a vehicles fuel economy by about 30%.
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all have plans to use a diesel powerplant in their light-duty pickup trucks, a plan that could soon spill over into their passenger cars.
However, diesels still have some hurdles to clear before they become mainstream. Most U.S. consumers still view diesels as the loud, dirty and slow engines from the 1970s and 80s — the exact opposite of modern clean diesels.
Diesels will also have to overcome the price difference with their gasoline counterparts. Though diesels do command about a $1,655 premium over gas models, that cost can quickly be made up in fuel savings. According to The Detroit News, if you were to drive a diesel 12,000 miles per year, it would take less than four years for the diesel option to pay for itself. In contrast, it would take more than 10 years for a $5,000 hybrid option to pay for itself.
Look for diesel technology to first emerge in trucks and SUV, where the most gains can be made. “The market is ripe, the question will be consumer confidence,” John Pinson, GM’s group manager of diesel engineering, told The Detroit News. “You start with the engines that consume the most fuel, big pickups and SUVs, where the payoff for the customer is best.”
