I’ll take an educated guess and say oil prices will NOT fall below 80/barrel ever again … OPEC has lied about production capacity, massive oil fields like Mexico’s are shrinking faster than anyone imagined, peak oil is probably already here. We are #2 in the world and we will benefit from ever increasing prices.

Other commodities will continue to climb in price as we are in a long-term commodities boom. Combine the demand and the inflation driven price increase and you’ve got a recipe for a sustained Cdn dollar value. The Chinas and Indias of the world are growing at incredible rates and won’t slow because of the U.S. To be honest, I don’t think we’re going to see 90 cents again for at least another decade or two.

As for the housing issue, I thought we’d have seen a turn around by now but we are a lagging indicator to the U.S. for many reasons. Housing prices are far above affordability ratios. Prices have deviated far above the mean and have to return to long-term averages … my worry is that as they fall, they will correct too low on the downside … market reactions are never exact, they run too high and fall too low.

It’s all relative. Since the U.S. has nothing to fall back on in terms of economic drivers and is, in fact, worse off in many respects (no doc mortgages to bums, no real commodities market to lean on), we will be insulated to some degree as the economy slows.

‘autonut’, the Pound Sterling is also affected by interest rate differential to other currencies (which is ‘helping’) and being a competing currency to a falling U.S. dollar in general … the housing market and personal spending do not themselves dictate a currency’s rate.

’sharpie’, correct, it is the falling U.S. dollar value that is moving others to their levels but only in direction, not magnitude … the CDN dollar has been the biggest gainer in the last 6 months, not because of interest rates, but because of its ‘petro dollar’ and ‘resource rich’ reputation.

Bigger picture, long-term … interest rates have to climb everywhere. Governments are lying to their populations about low inflation despite record money growth (monetary inflation) and real price increases (cable, food, gas, etc) since 1999. Gold prices aren’t where they are for no reason. let’s see how this derivatives mess spreads its tentacles globally and how everyone gets hit thanks to the big U.S. banks.

The US is not a society to conserve, be that oil, lumber etc. So where will the US get its resources from? Mid-east, India, Mexico or China? The US dollar is weak against many other currencies, not just the Canadian dollar. That means it is the US dollar that is devalued across the board as opposed to the Canadian dollar rising quickly. The problems lie in the US. As to housing market, depending on the location, some markets (Alberta for example) are still thriving. In the US, there is a decline nationwide.

Consider that the current foreclosures are induced by bad lending practices and Canada has much stricter regulations regarding lending, no bust in any Canadian housing market will be anywhere near the caliber of that in the US.

The housing bust is already spreading to Canada, and I personally know dozens of Canadians carrying tons of debt that are getting nailed to the cross with the 16 consecutive interest rate hikes over the last 2 years.

Black days ahead everyone. Travel light, save your money and plan ahead. Things are going to be grim for the next few years.

The US dollar is DEAD.