The EPA and Department of Transportation released a rather mundane 567-page proposal last month to secure tougher fuel economy regulations for future models, but that report has revealed some interesting U.S. sales predictions
Buried within that report is a custom sales forecast created by CSM Worldwide. Covering the years 2017-2025, the forecast does not paint a pretty picture for Chrysler.
Despite a heavy cash infusion from the government and the new leadership of Fiat, the federal government does not expect the next decade and a half to go well for Chrysler. According to the forecast, Chrysler’s sales will total just 768,241 units in 2025, marking a 54 percent decline from the automaker’s 1,659,950 sales in 2008.
As a side note, Chrysler expects to sell 2 million vehicles in the United States by 2014.
General Motors, another beneficiary of a government bailout, is also poised for a slow 2025. The forecast predicts the Detroit-based automaker will see its sales increase just 3 percent to 3,197,943 by 2012. If the forecast holds true, GM will rank second in terms of U.S. sales, trailing Toyota’s 3,318,069 units.
Meanwhile, Ford, the only of the Detroit automakers not to receive federal money, is expected to see a 26 percent sales increase to 2,224,586 units.
Other big winners by 2025 include Nissan (up 41 percent to 1,441,229 units), Hyundai (up 116% to 845,386 units), Kia (up 64 percent to 460,436) and Volkswagen (up 146 percent to 784,447 units).
Interestingly, the forecast calls for some big advances by smaller car makers. For example, Ferrari is expect to grow its sales 428 percent to 7,658 units while electric vehicle maker Tesla is predicted to see a 3,897 percent growth to 31,974 units. We have a feeling that Saab’s 3 percent growth to 26,605 units will never come to fruition, however.
Although the forecast does reveal some interesting predictions, it should be taken with a grain of salt, notes Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.
“When you get that far out, as a forecaster it becomes a crapshoot,” Schuster said. “They don’t even know what their lineup is going to be in 2025, so it’s difficult for a forecaster to know.”
References
1.’Feds’ crystal ball…’ view
