Only six automakers will survive the worldwide financial downturn, according to Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne. “By the time we finish with this in the next 24 months, as far as mass-producers are concerned, we’re going to end up with one American house, one German of size; one French-Japanese; one in Japan; one in China and one potential European player,” Marchionne told Automotive News Europe.
He said he believes the only way for an automaker to survive is if it makes more than 5.5 million cars per year. That would mean even his company, Fiat, would have to merge with another in order to remain viable.
“This business is going to be completely different. It cannot continue as it did in the past. Independence in this business is no longer sustainable.”
Potentially unstable automakers include those that are private or family owned, said analyst Jürgen Pieper. BMW, for example, is 46.6 percent owned by the Quandt family. Similarly, 30 percent of PSA/Peugeot-Citroen, is owned by the Peugeot family. Pieper said if the downturn continues, those families will likely try to sell their stakes in the automakers to protect their fortunes.
Pieper said BMW and Fiat are among the most vulnerable European companies. BMW CEO Norbert Reithofer recently stated his company is in the “biggest crisis in its history,” so it would appear Marchionne and Pieper make a valid point.
Of course, no one really knows how much worse the downturn will get. But if the problems deepen, consolidation might be the only route to survival. This is already evident in America, where there is growing pressure for GM and Chrysler to merge.
On the other side of the argument, some analysts point to the failure of the Daimler-Chrysler merger as a deterrent to future consolidation. But if smaller automakers collapse as the result of the growing financial crisis, the net effect could be the same — fewer automakers, each with larger slices of the market.
12/08, 3:55 AM
posted by:
gt4fyou
well not surprised. people are going to have to use up the car(s) they have now and not cycle through them like they’re fashion accessories
12/08, 3:57 AM
posted by:
WEKS
Just six? That’s kinda hard to imagine…
12/08, 7:38 AM
posted by:
bbtrick
perhaps the article is a little misleading. i dont think that there will be only 6 makes (ie fiat, bmw, porsche, ford, volvo, etc), rather that all the different brands or makes will fall under one house, one major company. thus ford may end up with several different brands as they has when they owned jaguar, austin, volvo, mazda, etc.
I’m not saying that i agree or disagree with the premise that only six will survive, just that even if only six major makers survive, they will likely still produce several different brands. Granted some of the brands should/will/may dissapear (no predictions on which ones), however even with only six houses (as the article put it) i think that bmw and volkswagen and porsche and fiat etc will continue to exist if for no reason other than brand name and recognition.
BMW may have to sell itself, however can anyone really think it would be a good idea to simply buy the BMW assets and dump the name? If VW bought BMW, I believe they would still make a BMW brand, not just kill it off entirely.
Putting it into that kind of context (that many of the brands will still exist, just not as individual makers) then it doesnt seem to far fetched to have this happen.
12/08, 8:12 AM
posted by:
oldraven
I think this guy’s crying a little too much doomsday. If they survived the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, they can survive the Otts.
12/08, 8:25 AM
posted by:
VictorRaikkonen
I reckon everything he has stated is a load of rubbish… I mean honestly, 6 global automakers… right.
12/08, 8:43 AM
posted by:
A4
Ford
Volkswagen
Renault-Nissan
Honda, although Toyota would be likely also
China sucks
and Fiat must be talking about themselves.
12/08, 8:44 AM
posted by:
AnonymousCoward
Will definitely be more than 6 *brands*, but what I guess he means is 6 *companies* controlling the whole thing. Not far away from that already today. My guess is one Korean, two Japanese, one US, three German, and one French. Plus some very small makers of luxury sports car.
12/08, 9:15 AM
posted by:
howsmydriving
What a dark day for motoring if BMW and MB fail, leaving the hideous VW standing.
12/08, 10:11 AM
posted by:
mayer_ray_nagin
If this italian thinks one of Toyota or Honda is going to disappear with 24 months he can bite the big linguini. Personally I would not mind seeing 2 of germany’s big 3 disappearing (namely Dainler and BMW) because I loathe brands that market to delusionary snobs, but I’d hate to see VW survive because they build bland crap of the poorest quality in Germany (which says a lot because all the German cars are qualitatively overated).
I think Fiat will merge with a frog company (probably Peugot), Ford will come thru, GM will be diminished but still there, VW and BMW (maybe combined with Daimler) will be around, the swedes are toast, Toyota & Honda & Nissan/Renault are there, 3 state-supported seed companies in China, and Tata and one more emerging company in India. For the time being, anyway.
12/08, 10:45 AM
posted by:
swamp donkey
Last I remember Germany is in Europe… 6 automakers to survive, seriously, what are you smoking?
12/08, 10:45 AM
posted by:
mtema99
i read that toyota have 40% of honda
and that is the link
http://www.autozine.org/Manufacturer/Japan.htm#Honda
can any one confirm
and if yes
why every one have a single managment
12/08, 10:46 AM
posted by:
mtema99
A legendary man created a legendary company. Soichiro Honda was born in a family running a small workshop for repairing bicycles. In 1937, he started his business by making piston rings designed and patented by himself. Interestingly, Toyota, its arch-rival today, held 40% equity in that company and used its piston rings.
12/08, 10:50 AM
posted by:
mayer_ray_nagin
Mtema99, that hisotry says that Toyota HAD a 40% share of the original Honda piston ring company in 1937 that gave Soichiro Honda his start. The Honda Motor Company of today is a different company.
12/08, 11:02 AM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
i don’t believe this. bmw, audi, vw, mb, toyota/lexus, nissan/infiniti, honda/acura, Ferrari, Lamborghini, renault, and lots of other European cars that i can’t see going out of business unless all of humanity dies!
12/08, 11:48 AM
posted by:
yarddog82abn
It’s to soon to say, I thank it’s more likely we see the collapse of international racing F-1, Le Mans, Moto-GP, you know cut cost first, before a massive merer of auto manufactures…
12/08, 12:12 PM
posted by:
TomF
The Fiat guy is right, only he’s not on the list.
Ford-GM
Toyota
Renault-Nissan
Volkswagen
Honda
Hyundai
That’s six GLOBAL COMBINES, not individual automotive brands.
12/08, 12:59 PM
posted by:
mtema99
thanks mayer_ray_nagin
but why not honda and toyota merge with each other
or toyota buy honda for example cause it had a lot of more cash than honda?
and i have other question to TomF
what about the future you see to BMW & PSA?
12/08, 1:08 PM
posted by:
TomF
in the grand scheme of things BMW is a niche brand; they’ll be rolled up into VW or Renault-Nissan. PSA needs an Asian partner like Renault secured for itself; maybe Honda or Hyundai.
12/08, 1:15 PM
posted by:
mtema99
but BMW if it rolled under VW
VW now have Audi , Bently and even more porche ‘ll take all VAG sooner or later
and if goes under RNG
they also have infiniti which they spend a lot of money for it’s image world wide
i guess BMW with Honda is much more better
honda need RWD and BMW had that tech.
also Honda’s luxury marque ACURA is just selling in USA
so its ease to replace it
12/08, 1:21 PM
posted by:
mtema99
and about PSA i guess it ‘ll better if it merge with mitsubishi
Specially they ‘ll benefit with it’s AWD tech
and mitsubishi ‘ll benefit of sales in europe specially france and east europe
but i guess it is not Honda way to buy PSA
and ‘ll be useless
also Hyundai ‘ll need a luxury halo Marque instead of making new luxury one
which is not with the case of PSA
12/08, 2:27 PM
posted by:
A4
idrinorbarsku audi is VW, and i dont think he was referring to ultra high performance makers like ferrari and lamborghini when he said “global”. He may not have even been referring to BMW or Merc and may just be referring to “global” makers of cars for the masses.
12/10, 1:19 PM
posted by:
hondAccord
the crisis is looking that bad right now but who am i to say that. but i doubt that just one japanese. Honda is too independent for that to happen. but if it did happen it would be an awesome collabo of BMW and Honda. imagine the result of the M cars. **** they would have a redline of 13k, lol. i think that Ford would be the big wig in the US. that wouldnt be bad at all considering if all their products made in the US were as good as the ones in the UK. Its a shame they didnt think about doing that in the beginning….