Boosted by its lack of government funding, Ford will likely overtake General Motors as the nation’s most popular automaker within the next few years, a new study finds. Ford is expected to grow its U.S. market share while bankruptcies at GM and Chrysler are expected to erode sales.
According to Merrill Lynch’s latest “Car Wars” study, Ford will grow its U.S. market share by 3 percent over the next four years, capturing about 18 percent of the market. In contrast, GM’s market share will continually decline over the next five years, coming to rest somewhere between 15 and 16 percent.
“We continue to believe Ford is effectively executing on its restructuring plan, while bolstering liquidity, and view the results of our Car Wars study as further evidence that management is making all of the right moves,” Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy told Automotive News.
Ford has been losing market share here in the U.S. for the last 13 years, but is using its lack of government intervention as a turning point. Ford’s market share is up by about a third of a point so far this year, pushing the Michigan automaker past Toyota to take the number two spot behind GM. Both GM and Chrysler have lost about two points of market share through the first six months of the year.



07/16, 4:41 PM
posted by:
Bubs Solo
Good news for Ford…I sure Borat will try to punch a hole in that theory though.
07/16, 4:45 PM
posted by:
Pauly
It’ll probably happen given that the Euro Fiesta and Focus are coming next year. The new Taurus will probably sell much better than the blob it replaces as well.
07/16, 4:47 PM
posted by:
JakeK66
Well the guy they quoted was from Merrill Lynch – that takes the reliability of this report down a notch.
07/16, 4:49 PM
posted by:
l.sanchez
Sounds about right…plus the new Mustang, Fusion, and F150…Edge is still selling well for the them too. Flex too. I think they have alot going for them. I’m just glad i bought Ford stock when it was down around $1!!
07/16, 4:54 PM
posted by:
DB9
The B*stards…
“GM’s market share will continually decline over the next five years, coming to rest somewhere between 15 and 16 percent.”
Cool Dawg, Merrill has been cribbing our notes! I told ya to…
DB9 lol:-))
07/16, 4:54 PM
posted by:
Uncle Butch
IT was just a matter of time before da Ford took da spot dat has been help by da general for so long. Ford has really positioned itself for da takeover of da auto market. I am proud of da boys at da dearborn place.
07/16, 5:10 PM
posted by:
CADDY-V
Well with GM also letting go of 4 brands in the US any idiot could figure that this might be a posibility for Ford.
Let’s just take last months sales and minus Hummer, Saturn, Pontiac, and Saab.
Dah they will lose market share they are letting go of 4 brands. Don’t invest with Merrill Lynch if that’s the best they got.
07/16, 5:20 PM
posted by:
Me
Look what your government can do for you! As much as I liked the GM vehicles –especially the new Buicks, Cadillacs and the Chevy Malibu and Traverse- I won’t buy them now. I’m actually proud of Ford. It only makes since that the market shares go them. A family member of mine bought his first ford truck ever after being a chevy buyer for ~45 years. I thought hell would freeze before he bought a Ford. Change…
07/16, 5:23 PM
posted by:
junior is awesome
Gm could only buy sales leadership so long untill the $$$ ran out. 48 month leases with a 47% residual value, 9 months of early lease termination with no penalty for extra miles???? 0% for 72 months
07/16, 5:27 PM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
caddy-v,
your comment was definitely expected before you even commented!
though it is false!
07/16, 5:32 PM
posted by:
AarOOOOn
My next new car will either be a future model Focus RS or Mustang GT. Both cars are really exciting prospects. Even the Fiesta is intriguing.
07/16, 5:33 PM
posted by:
l.sanchez
Caddy – Remember, Ford also lost Jaguar, Land Rover, Aston, and Mazda. So it seems like a fair apples to apples analysis.
07/16, 5:55 PM
posted by:
carstuff
Id, what part of his statement was false? That GM would lose market share if they dropped half their marques? I do not get your response. Surely you jest or did you really think GM would keep their market share as they reduced the number of models/marques.
Curious minds want to know how the heck you think because we sure cannot figure it out.
07/16, 6:07 PM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
carstuff,
exactly what “l.sanchez” said, plus the fact that even if they were able to keep those brands, which brought them not enough income for what they are producing, they would till not be increasing sales to pass FORD’s sales increase and momentum. All those gm brands got dropped because they were using labor and money to produce something that wasn’t selling! Ford is still in front profiting even though they dropped all those other makes like mazda, jag, LR, and aston!
Maybe you understand now?
GM has many things going against them right now, blaming it all on the fact that they dropped some brands is foolish!
07/16, 6:07 PM
posted by:
johnnycanuck
Another blurb in the business section today as reported by CNW Marketing Research saying that “Ford was the choice of 38% of consumers interested in Pontiac models”. Would someone please remind me once again why it is that Buick lives on and Pontiac is no more?
07/16, 6:10 PM
posted by:
JakeK66
Yeah, id, wtf are you talking about? I assume you mean that with them going out, you’s be forced to buy something else, and if you were going to buy a GM you would be buying another GM anyway BUT Hummer, Saturn and Saab will still be around to take up market share! They aren’t just disappearing like Pontiac – although some of those buyers will goto Ford just because of anger.
07/16, 6:26 PM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
jake,
no need to get p!ssed off because ford is about to take over gm! Do you realize that my example would cancel out? When GM loses pontiac, hummer, saturn, and saab, those potential buyers will go wherever they want, the same is for FORD. Their potential buyers of mazda and others will go wherever they want. It doesnt mean they are loyal to ford or gm! So they cancel out because you cannot say that one guy is loyal to gm and another is not loyal to ford. And in this case, apparently from johnny’s statement, 38% of interested pontiac buyers are going to ford….thats a large number of switchers, and it most certainly hurt gm!
07/16, 7:11 PM
posted by:
jayjc08
Why is everyone blaming Fords increased market share on not taking government loans? While that’s sure to be a good thing, a great thing, it’s because their making better products than GM. Products such as the Fusion have really made an outstanding impact on Ford’s image.
07/16, 7:30 PM
posted by:
tyler_is_aero_tt
I’m seeing a ton of the new Fusions on the road but no new Mustangs. I see a lot of the new Camaro’s though.
07/16, 7:45 PM
posted by:
autolover
Your Comment
CADDY-V…
Are you forgetting that Ford no longer counts Jag, Landrover and Aston Martin sales volume for the total of Ford sales anylonger.
Ford has lost counted volume also, reality is Ford is gaining market share and rightly so, Fords hard work is paying off.
07/16, 9:17 PM
posted by:
MHW
I have no doubt that Ford will gain market share in the short term, but I don’t think the long term is so certain. It will be interesting to see what the future holds but I think it’s anyone’s game to be won or lost. I would be surprised if the public at large even remembers or cares about all the auto troubles of 09 in a couple years. I think in the end it will all come down to product and service.
07/16, 9:49 PM
posted by:
carstuff
Not sure which sales you guys are talking about but Mazda, Jag, Aston were never included in Fords car sales. Only Volvo was and their sales are so tiny it does not make much of a difference to total sales. So Ford did not “lose” those sales and then “make” them up with Ford sales. Ford is gaining market share on its own Ford sales which is great for them.
Ford has had some great products coming out all by themselves and earning every share they get. Not sure how / when Ford is making a profit though. Never heard that one.
07/16, 10:21 PM
posted by:
DrFill
Ford is to leadership as Hyundai is to market strategy
Watch the movie “Idiocracy”
I mourn for our future
DrFill
07/17, 1:36 AM
posted by:
leftwingagenda
hmm…a company that’s not bankrupt gets more market share than companies that do…how unsurprising
07/17, 2:20 AM
posted by:
psiclone
I agree that Ford will likely see a short-term lead in market share but they won’t possibly be able to sustain it in the long-term. I’m not a supporter of any government intervention but it nevertheless has left GM far better poised financially for the future than Ford. And besides future products, I think GM is already making more desireable products than Ford.
Lincoln is a faux luxury brand (as always). Mercury is… what do they make again? And Ford is still just Ford, with improved quality. I like the Fusion that I think looks more youthful than the otherwise handsome Malibu. The F series still leads in sales only because GM decides to sell MORE trucks through two brand outlets (as always). Cadillac, with the CTS and SRX, is firmly on its way back to world class status (which Lincoln has yet to ever achieve). Buick is poised to take on yuppie Lexus/Acura fans with something like three new models in the next couple of years, building on their Enclave success. Chevy is finally starting to make incredible cars again for the everyday man. Traverse versus Flex? LOL. WTH is with the odd looking Flex anyway… it’s 2009. It’s like a swollen version of that nasty Scion turd box thing, and is marketed to make us believe that if you think it’s ugly, it’s only because you’re not cool and don’t understand its edgy-ness. Mustang versus Camaro? Uh, need i say more? The Taurus? It looks fresh today (except for the curiously odd geometricly-shaped taillights). But with the limited numbers they will sell due to its enormous size, it will be a blip on the radar in 2 years. However, lots of older people on a budget will probably enjoy them in their twilight years. The SHO appeared awesome, until news of the Caprice came. Ford’s upcoming Focus looks like a winner but so does the Cruze (however, stupid name and i’m not sold on the front fender design). Ranger versus Colorado? Neither, thanks.
I applaud the people that choose not to buy from GM or Chrysler based on their beliefs, but when it comes time to spend the money I’ve earned on my next car, i’m shopping for the best product my money can buy. It will most likey be a GM product. Can’t wait to dump my Acura POS Type-S as my commuter (learned from THAT mistake).
07/17, 2:53 AM
posted by:
psiclone
Okay, so maybe the SHO is awesome again. Plans for Caprice are no more.
http://fastlane.gmblogs.com/
07/17, 8:49 AM
posted by:
muttonchops
If you guys think the Fiesta will shake up the small car market over here, wait until you see the next Focus. Prepare to poop yourselves. The Cruze is nice, but the Focus will be nicer.
07/17, 9:11 AM
posted by:
Borat
Bubs Solo, please help me to understand this: “Ford has been losing market share here in the U.S. for the last 13 years, but is using its lack of government intervention as a turning point.” Where is the bright side?
07/17, 9:26 AM
posted by:
Z06ified
I thought Merrill Lynch was out of business. They’re doing car studies now??
07/17, 9:39 AM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
psiclone,
I guess you havent hear the news yet!
The new chevy g8(caprice/impala) is DEAD!!!!
07/17, 9:50 AM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
Also both comments from DrFill and ZO6ified both Chevy and GM Purists were well expected. Hey and as for Mr. Caddy-V your earlier comments were not warranted about Merrill Lynch. Its like you want to Kill the messenger for bringing you the bad news about GM’s declining market share. WHy??
You can try and refute their report if you have grounds? Do you? But the evidence they have gathered on the auto market is substantial. Ford Motor’s Managment has been making all the right decision in most instances unlike GM’s. As to Z06 listen this is Merrill Lynch’s territory they are an Investment firm they look for good companies for their Clients to invest it. So that is what they do-Research the better companies for investment opportunites!
Oh Yeah psiclone blow it out your ass. Who do you think started your Cadillac Brand..None other than Henry Ford who was turning out a limited number of cars before he started Cadillac.
Lincoln has every right to call themselves a Luxury Brand. At Airport all I ever see is Lincoln Town Cars as Stretch Limo’s almost 97% and the remaining 3% are the rest of the luxury brands combined!
07/17, 11:52 AM
posted by:
Bubs Solo
I guess the “bright side” for Ford is not so obvious to everyone. More people going to your dealerships to look at your product is the “bright side” especially when a year ago these same people would never have considered a Ford. That along with the fact that their product is a vast improvement is the “bright side” my friend.
It also helps that the brain dead media finally stopped clumping Ford in with GM and Chrysler as the “BIG THREE” every time there was bad news to report.
07/17, 1:22 PM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
Actually I have been waiting for this day for Years to come. It actually should have happen in the late 90’s if many of you remember Ford Motor was still on a roll then and had it best sales year ever back in 1996 and 1997. However, that is when they went to sleep and stop redesigning cars and Trucks.
1930 was way before my time but still Ford had the sales crown since its inception. I think the Ford Motor can not only take the Lead here soon from GM but keep it permanantly! I don’t think NFMOGM is gonna like this at all.
07/17, 3:06 PM
posted by:
psiclone
idrinorbarsaku, i guess you didn’t read my follow-up post right after my original.
Bankruptcy2009, the history of Cadillac doesn’t change the fact that Lincoln was always a bit player compared to Caddy. Sorry. Besides, WTF does that piece of history have to do with my point? Do you think that those first couple of years are what propelled Cadillac to where they were at their peak 50 years later? If Ford was so good at creating luxury brands, then Caddy should have withered when he left and Lincoln should have surpassed it. You make no sense. Besides, if HE is responsible for Caddy’s move to the front, then you must also conclude that HE was responsible for Caddy’s decline as well. And, if you think seeing those WalMart-stye Lincoln limos at the airport en masse is a sign of superiority, you are mistaken. People use those Lincoln limos like they use airport toilet stalls. I’m pretty sure they each come equipped with seat cover dispensers. By the way BK09, you call others on here GM “purists” as though it is a bad thing. I’d say you qualify as a purist. Hypocrite.
I will be happy to see an American company thrive so i don’t wish Ford ill. I just don’t agree with many of the positions that Ford Motor Co. has taken on social issues. GM and Chrysler tend to stay out of that arena but Ford has been very vocal and financially supportive of many far-left causes. They are not coy about it so neither am I in my position about them. Now government intervention into Chrysler and GM have caused me to rethink my support of them. But I’ve read that preliminary plans are for GM to have all government loans repaid by 2015; I haven’t read anything for Chrysler. Chrysler went through this process in the past and the American taxpayer actually profited on the deal. Again, I’m not a proponent of it but the situation can be rectified for GM and Chrysler, and that is their goal. If Ford gets out of the social-activism arena, then I will reconsider my lack of support for them.
However, I seriously just like GM products more, for the most part.
07/17, 3:30 PM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
no, i did read it. I just meant it as a statement to your statement which seams to be completely biased and has no real reasoning behind it! You go from one thing to another right as the news switches, reminds me of hypocrites!
07/17, 4:32 PM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
psiclone I understand your concern about some of the left Issue Ford has been apart of. If you understand that the Ford Motor company is still controlled by the family then you also understand its more than just one family member that has some say so besides Bill Ford.. I have dually noted that Ford though to my displeasure as well has supported liberal cause but I also know they have supported conservative causes along with the Republican party. Which in my opinion is definitively more conservative than the democratic party.
But the point I am driving at here , is like all family not everyone in every family thinks the same. Some families are together and some are’nt. Ford family is definitely comprised of both ideologies and ways of thinking.
I will also tell you this for your own good! Everyone that is Liberal is not necessarily evil or bad and everyone that is hard core conservative is not necessarily RIGHT EITHER. I am conservative myself.
I see the draw backs of both ways of thinking and would encourage you to be open minded to both. its in your interest to do so sir! and it your parel if you don’t!
Cadillac was never so big that Lincoln was an insignificant play as a matter of fact this whole performance side that Cadillac “NEVER ” was actually started by Lincoln back in the 1980’s Mark VII
Production 1984–1992
HO 225 hp @ 4200 rpm & 300 ft·lbf @ 3200 rpm L V8 and Lincolns’ Performane offering through the Mark IV was certainly was alot better than anything Cadillac had to offer from its HUGE Land Yacht offerings. It came with a Whimpy base engine of 134 HP I mean who is kidding who here. The rest of the Cadillac are most remembered as Hearses my friend and nothing more.,,,,, Now you can pass the Toliet Seat Paper over here for Cadillac and its entourage of forgettable Behmoths that had nothing to do with Performance.
Also you have to be in denial if the Henry Ford CO that essentially founded Cadillac was NEVER started Cadillac would never be! So who’d the bit player and who isn’t my friend.
Also there is a Song about Hot Rod Lincolns but I don’t think you’ll find a Performance oriented songs about the Humpback Whale Bodies @ Cadillac … its always singing about how you could put a Fireplace and grow a garden in the back of that large flower pot of a tank! lol
07/17, 4:34 PM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
1984 cadillac biarritz came with the Whimpy 134HP motor and that was considered the performance car back then how sad.
07/17, 6:40 PM
posted by:
psiclone
idrinorbarsaku, how is it that you see my statement as “hypocritical?” Without the Caprice I think the SHO is a bad-a** sedan. However, if Chevy makes the Caprice, I see the SHO as having lost its appeal. Were you just trying to find a way to use “hypocrite” in a sentence against me? And what you call “bias” i call preference. Not a productive conversation.
Bankruptcy2009, when I started reading your reply, it sounded civil and i appreciated it. Then you started losing me towards the end. Maybe it was my fault for starting it with the Lincoln limo “seat cover” comment but I couldn’t hold back. Sorry. However, when you start in to your defense of why you believe Lincoln to be the better company, you overlook one major point. I was continually referring to Caddy as being the superior “luxury” brand. Not performance brand. That duty was usually left to other divisions as luxury didn’t require performance through every decade. What defined luxury through the decades has varied. Currently, performance is a part of the formula. Strangely, economy is becoming an increasing part of that formula. However, during the time of the examples that you listed, not many typical “luxury” car shoppers were stressing performance in their priorities. Although, in Lincoln’s defense I do remember the Mark VII series (1984-1992) you referred to and I always thought it was way ahead of its time. Unfortunately they were plagued with huge quality issues (like most of the domestic industry at the time). I felt the Mark VIII (1993-1998) was a poorly executed successor to such and advanced car as the Mark VII.
Needless to say, but I will anyway, your entire defense is based upon performance as the indicator of superior luxury… oh and whether or not a music artist complimented your car in a song or not. I’m not buying it. And sorry, but I really couldn’t care less whether some musician approves of my vehicle. I’m driving it, I’m paying for it. And, hopefully, I’m enjoying it.
By the way, speaking of performance being a current necessary luxury car ingredient, a comparison of Lincoln to Caddy’s 2009 offerings should display a bit of “luxury” difficiency on Lincoln’s part. Sure Lincoln has their “eco boost” (laughable last minute marketing-induced name switch) but that’s not to say that Caddy couldn’t offer turbo or supercharging on their current normally aspirated motors also for efficiency and performance benefits. And, last time I checked, Lincoln has nothing to counter Caddy’s V-series. Nothing. In fact, not many other “luxury” brands do. Caddy was headed in a great direction but now that this joke of an administration has their fangs in the neck of GM, I fear for its future. Switching Caddy’s flagship to a front/AWD (hopefully, exclusively AWD) platform is a mistake as I feel it drops Caddy down to Buick/Lincoln territory.
I wish Ford and its brands well and I love seeing them stick it to the imports, especially on quality. However, as I said, I have differences with their associations as a business and I refuse to compromise my stance on certain issues by financing their social ideologies/political pandering. I’m sure they must contribute to some conservative causes but it makes no difference. And, in a way, that is my point.
You state “I will also tell you this for your own good! Everyone that is Liberal is not necessarily evil or bad and everyone that is hard core conservative is not necessarily RIGHT EITHER. I am conservative myself.” Where on earth did you get those ideas? Because you may struggle with issues like that doesn’t mean everyone calling themselves conservative does. But if I can prevent even $1 that I earn from going towards an abortion or some gay agenda advancement, I will. Sure there are internal struggles in the Ford family but I’m not judging them, I’m judging what FoMoCo does with money I, as a consumer, would provide.
07/17, 6:46 PM
posted by:
SoTXFord
For the record, Ford never owned more than a 33% stake in Mazda, and while it was a controlling share, I don’t believe that they were ever officially considered part of the Ford family or that their sales numbers were ever added with Ford’s. Ford sold down to only a 13.4% stake late last year, and while that lost control of the company, I don’t think you can go so far as calling that a “sale of Mazda”.
07/17, 8:00 PM
posted by:
DrFill
BK09
Calling me a Chevy purist is pretty far off the mark, not that this would be new for you
Having hated GM for decades, I would characterize my softening as that of a well-wisher at an old rival’s funeral.
They are dying, but are going out with a bang, and at least showing some chutzpah in their product line
DrFill
07/17, 8:37 PM
posted by:
beatusmongous
Dr. Fill, that’s called “respect”. Well said.
07/18, 12:26 AM
posted by:
DrFill
GM is to cars what John Daly is to golf
Shotgun talent
Shotglass brains!
Or as my friend Bud Bundy once said:
“If you poor a gallon of knowledge into a shotglass of a brain……..
You’re gonna spill some!”
DrFill
07/18, 9:56 AM
posted by:
idrinorbarsaku
no because you clearly sounded that you hated the sho because of the new caprice, but then when news came around that it won’t be made, you started talking about the sho… it sounded hypocritical to me the first time I read it, and it still does when I re-read it. But I’ll take your word for it that you aren’t!
07/18, 2:56 PM
posted by:
Uncle Butch
Red Robin should have gravy for da fries, Ford should be da number one sales company, Gambling should be legal in da US, and you should be able to eat with your hands at a fancy restaurant. That would be da perfect world! WAR FUSION outselling all of da GM…
07/19, 12:17 PM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
psiclone the Sho Owns the G8 for severals reasons. The SHO is not only technologically superior it also superior in all weather traction ability with AWD so in other words a G8 or a Caprice would seen nothing but Taurus SHO tail lights and that about it!
07/19, 12:25 PM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
Some Liberal Ideas are the best ideas and some conservative ideals are the way to go. So you want to say everything Liberal is bad or Immoral good. Because I WON’T and no sir I don’t struggle with any issues. But I see you do! You sound like another RUSH WINDBAUGH. FULL OF HOT AIR, HIS OWN SELF RIGHTEOUSNESS,Gas, and STUPIDITY. As far as Gay Advancement I don’t condone it nor support it the same is true with abortion. But I detect with you – that you think your the LAW. There is only one True law and that’s GOD’s LAW not yours or mine or some other SELF RIGHTEOUS Jerk walking down the street and tells everyone this it the way it ought to be.. You got me BOY!
07/19, 12:27 PM
posted by:
Bankruptcy2009
psiclone go buy GM – or Obama Motors or Abortionist Motors now who’s the Abortionist!
07/19, 2:36 PM
posted by:
jackjimturkey
Ford is being fitted for the Crown