Over the last few days, GM’s impending bankruptcy filing was anything but a secret. Over the weekend, it was probably the topic of discussion at millions of dinner tables across America and around the world. But the moment has finally arrived, and it will likely be days before the gravity of this situation is fully realized. A once hypothetical strategy to separate GM’s good assets from its toxic liabilities was set in motion this morning at 8:00 a.m. with a Chapter 11 filing in a New York bankruptcy court.
U.S. President Barack Obama will hold a media briefing from the White House at 11:55 a.m. today to explain the goals of the government-backed restructuring plan and quell the concerns of those involved (which, to be fair, is every American taxpayer). GM CEO Fritz Henderson, will host a press conference around 12:15 p.m., immediately following Obama’s speech.
GM’s good assets — Chevrolet , Cadillac , GMC , and Buick — could emerge as a part of a “New GM” within 60 to 90 days. The damaged goods — Pontiac, Hummer, Saturn, Saab , and Opel — will be liquidated or dissolved over a much longer Chapter 7 process. Opel is likely to live on under new Canadian and Russian ownership, and Saab also has a reasonable shot at a successful spin-off. Saturn and Hummer might find new owners, but the odds are lower. As for the Pontiac division, it will disappear for good.
There is no question General Motors will live on with its four core brands, in one form or another. After all, the U.S. government has committed virtually limitless funds to this goal. But there is a great deal of concern among the company’s 56,000 workers and the even larger number of people employed by GM dealers. GM’s restructuring is expected to lead to nearly a dozen plant closures and 20,000 direct job losses. That doesn’t include the 100,000 jobs expected to be lost following the expected closure of more than 2,000 dealers.
Implications for the U.S. economy also go beyond lost jobs and shuttered dealer franchises. The government has already poured $19.4 billion into GM, and another $30.1 billion will probably be needed to get the company back on its feet. $50 billion might pale in comparison to the financial sector bailouts of late 2008, but worries over runaway government spending are increasingly weighing on the U.S. dollar and the long-term outlook for America’s finances.
All of this will leave the U.S. government with a 60 percent stake in the company, while the Canadian government will dump in $9.5 billion for a 12.5 percent stake. For the governments to recoup the $60 billion spent, the new GM will eventually have to attain a market valuation of at least $83 billion. That’s not inconceivable, considering Toyota ’s $170 billion market cap. But it will be a long road to recovery.
