The New Year is only a few days old but analysts are already calling for the global auto market to expand by 6.7 percent in 2012. Most of that growth is expected to be fueled by increased demand from China.
According to a new forecast by R.L. Polk & Co., global auto sales will rise 6.7 percent to 77.7 million vehicles this year. As in recent years, China will be a big part of that growth, with the world’s largest auto market expected to see a 16 percent gain to 17.9 million vehicles.
However, unlike China’s recent past, that growth is expected to come from the country’s second- and third-tier cities. Most of China’s growth over the last three years has come from its major urban areas.
“Growth in China will pick up again in 2012,†Anthony Pratt, Polk’s director of forecasting for the Americas, said . “The growth there will be more a function of natural demand than stimulus, and the expansion in the second-and third-tier cities is a trend that’s going to continue to develop.â€
The United States market is expected to continue its recovery in 2012, although a full return to pre-crash levels won’t be achieved until 2015. The report calls for U.S. sales to increase 7.3 percent to 13.7 million units.
The European market, meanwhile, will remain flat. Europe accounted for 19.2 million new vehicle sales in 2011 and will remain close to that level this year.
References
1.’Global Auto Sales…’ view
