Three top investors in the automotive industry — Jerry York, an adviser to billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian; financier Wilbur Ross; and Thomas Stallkamp, a former Chrysler president — predicted a sharp downturn in U.S. auto sales in 2008, one even predicting the lowest totals seen in over 15 years.
“While I am very negative on the autos sector over the next 12 to 18 months, I’m just not sure how bad it could be,” York told Automotive News. “We all know housing is a debacle.” York predicts U.S. auto sales to slip to 15.5 million units or less, representing a 3% decrease and the lowest total since 1998. Ross also predicted a similar decline.
Stallkamp, on the other hand, feels that 2008 sales could actually be much worse. “I’d say it’s somewhere between 14.5 (million) and 15 (million), somewhere in there and it’s hard to tell,” he said. “Today, I’m a little more towards 14.5 (million).” If auto sales totaled just 14.5 million units, it would represent the lowest total since 1991 — a time when the economy was in a recession. None of the analysts predicted a recession in 2008, although York said “it feels like it’s on the way.”
Despite Stallkamp’s gloomy outlook on 2008, he thinks the auto industry will rebound in 2009, thanks to a stabilizing credit market in mid-2008.
While this is bad news for the entire industry, it will likely impact domestic automakers the most. “You’re going to see some continued retrenchment in construction and the building trades that will hit the Big Three particularly,” Stallkamp said. The investors foresee domestic automakers using inventory control instead of heavy incentives to make it through the market downturn, a practice that has become more prevalent in Detroit.
11/20, 10:08 AM
posted by:
Veda
Still wouldn’t affect the sales of the GT-R…
11/20, 11:02 AM
posted by:
LP640
Can you be a bit more specific LLN?
11/20, 12:04 PM
posted by:
planet_drive
This is exactly why its a bad time to buy a domestic car these days. Since 90% of the domestic cars on sale here are built only for the domestic market, and our market buying the least amount of new cars now, domestic car makers are going to build cars that are lower quality and will not last as long so that we are forced to buy another new car sooner than expected. If they built quality reliable cars that lasted 15 years without problems, it would hurt their sales because people would not have a need to buy more new cars. Stick with imports because those cars are built for international markets and focus on quality and reliability is the most important issue for them.
11/20, 12:10 PM
posted by:
purdue
just waiting for hybrids, diesels, and $3k indian/chinese cars to rewrite the auto industry.
11/20, 12:22 PM
posted by:
injunraiv
planet_drive is smoking some mighty powerful stuff there… Really? all domestic manufacturers build in obsolesance and all import builders don’t? you’re living in a dream world, dude. I have a 197,000 mile Yukon that says you’re full of crap. I have plenty of customers who are well into the 100,000 mile range, and fewer but still plenty who have broken the 200,000 mile mark. And even a few import owners who have achieved that plateau come to me for service.
Show me where you get your stats, and we’ll talk some more…
11/20, 12:44 PM
posted by:
Impulsive
No surprise here. Don’t worry, I’ll do my part and buy from you Americanos next year. And I’ll guarantee it won’t be a Honda or Toyota.
11/20, 12:51 PM
posted by:
CTS DRIVER
planet drive the only person here who is more retarded id cd5. buy what you like no matter who builds it. jeeeez.
11/20, 1:01 PM
posted by:
planet_drive
I’m just saying the new domestics won’t be as good as the older ones. Old GM’s and Chryslers can easily go past 150k, but the new ones will need lots of repairs before it even hits 100k
11/20, 1:11 PM
posted by:
SwerveEarly
PLANET-DRIVE; If things business were that transparent we all would be making huge money in stocks right now, your a simpleton and a dick. Or your like 12 and your dads is a security guard in which case Im sorry.
11/20, 3:12 PM
posted by:
CA36GTP
I’ve seen more new cars this year than I ever have. I’m still trying to figure out where this downward spiraling economy is? All I ever see is people making more and spending more.
11/20, 4:33 PM
posted by:
johnnycanuck
Exactly CA36GTP. And despite the minless meanderings of many of the domestic malcontents on this site the locals are making some pretty decent stuff nowadays. Didn’t Caddy just win MT’s car of the year?
11/20, 5:04 PM
posted by:
CA36GTP
That it did.
11/20, 5:16 PM
posted by:
C6Racer
A Cadillac won car of the year? Wow. I’m a GM fan and even I’m freakin surprised.
11/20, 7:20 PM
posted by:
cfishgo
Not shocking to me at all. Even semi-smart people watching the news aren’t chomping at the bit to go into more debt… foreclosures/ recession/ layoffs/ war/ politics… Sorta creates an atmosphere where everyone is just waiting.. Most new car buyers have cars less than 5 years old, so it’s difficult to convince someone to buy something they really don’t need instead of holding off for blue skies.
11/21, 1:59 PM
posted by:
jackjimturkey
planetdrive: You and yo’ momma should both be sterilized. Not that yo’ll ever get laid anyway.
raiv: always value pd’s babble over your own experience
11/23, 12:47 PM
posted by:
lamboz get a life
Planetdumbass, shut the hell up, ignorant fool. The vast majority if Asian cars here are also only built for the U.S. market. Retard. Only the European cars here can truly be found worlwide unchanged.
11/30, 8:47 PM
posted by:
RicardoHead
embed test …
11/30, 8:47 PM
posted by:
RicardoHead