Global demand for diesel light vehicles is expected to nearly double over the next 10 years — increasing from 15 million sales in 2005 to 29 million in 2015 — according to J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting. J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting projects the global market share for diesel-powered cars and light trucks will reach 26 percent by 2015 — an increase from 18 percent in 2005. While Western Europe has been a key driver in the rapid growth of diesel vehicle demand for the past 10 years, increased demand from consumers in other regions will promote growth during the next decade. The diesel share of U.S. light-vehicle sales is expected to increase from 3.2 percent in 2005 to more than 10 percent by the middle of the next decade. Conversely, prospects for diesel light-vehicle demand within the key Asian markets remains mixed.



”As a proven, cost-effective and ‘off-the-shelf’ solution, diesel has a head start over other emerging fuel-efficient technologies,” said Alastair Bedwell, senior manager for J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting. “With energy prices at elevated levels and new regulatory pressure to improve light-truck fuel efficiency, a range of fuel-efficient alternatives to the conventional gasoline engine will be required. The United States and Canada are markets with enormous potential for diesel light-vehicle sales.”


”South Korea and India are key markets for diesel growth in Asia, and the market in China is continuously developing,” said Bedwell. “However, near- and mid-term prospects for diesel vehicle sales in Japan remain limited. There has been some rejection of diesel technology among consumers, despite Japanese manufacturers embracing the technology.”


J.D. Power and Associates expects a slowing of growth in the Western Europe diesel car market as some key markets reach saturation. However, demand in Eastern Europe is expected to eclipse that of Western Europe during the forecast period. While Euro-5 emission limits will not disrupt the diesel market, Euro-6 limits have the potential to negatively alter the fiscal relationship between diesel and its competitors. As a result, diesel share in Western Europe is expected to peak at below 60 percent of the new-vehicle market.


Volkswagen is expected to remain the largest global supplier of diesel-fueled light vehicles, followed by Ford Motor Company. Additionally, Toyota is slated to be the fastest-growing global diesel new-vehicle provider from 2005 through 2015.

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