The Obama administration is heavily pushing plug-in hybrid vehicle technology – and has even set the goal of 1 million plug-in hybrids on the road by 2015 – but Toyota warns that the buying public might not be ready to buy into plug-in vehicles.
Toyota now sell more than 150,000 units of its Prius in the United States annually – easily making it the most popular hybrid on the market – but the Japanese automaker is wary of the demand for plug-in hybrids, according to Reuters.
‘Plug-in’ became a mainstream buzz word when gas hit $4 a gallon last summer, but now that gas is under $2.50, Toyota is dubious of the potential for plug-in sales. In fact, Bill Reinert, Toyota’s U.S. national manager for advanced technology, recently told a panel in Washington that plug-in demand wouldn’t exceed 50,000 units a year and could be as low as 3,500 units.
Toyota foresees such low demand for plug-in hybrids because of the expected high costs and low durability of the early plug-in models. Early plug-ins will likely carry a $10,000+ premium over their non-plug-in counterparts, despite returning real-world fuel economy figures that aren’t that far apart. Moreover, recharge times are expected to be in the hours, with battery life essentially unproven.
We should have a better idea of the market when the Chevrolet Volt finally hits the market in late 2010, but it seems the goal of 1 million plug-ins by 2015 is a little out of reach.



05/21, 5:28 PM
posted by:
DB9
lol Now there’s a revelation:-)) Who woulda thunk…
DB9
05/21, 5:31 PM
posted by:
DB9
Oops, almost forgot – the summer of 2009 has officially begun – enjoy the long weekend, that is unless your in Cali:’(
DB9
05/21, 5:33 PM
posted by:
A4
You really like the word “dubious”
05/21, 5:42 PM
posted by:
letsgorange
ohh obama dont we need an infrastructure for plug ins? The horse before the carriage. I havent seen any plug in stations anywhere in the US and havent heard of any plans yet. Not to mention arnt things things going to take hours to charge. I know when im traveling this weekend thelast thing i want to do is stop at a “plug in” station to juice up for 8 hours.
05/21, 5:54 PM
posted by:
manhertm
^^^^When you see a plug-in hybrid on the streets, let me know.
05/21, 6:20 PM
posted by:
woofpup
letsgorange: I definitely understand where you’re coming from but I think you’re thinking of a full electric vehicle with regard to needing to stop at a plug in station during a road trip. A plug-in hybrid can run off its gas engine when it runs out of charge. It doesn’t require a charging station – it just benefits from one.
05/21, 6:47 PM
posted by:
johnnycanuck
Wow. Common sense in the auto industry- probably the only thing in shorter supply than lithium.
05/21, 8:13 PM
posted by:
beatusmongous
Love the name, LetsGoOrange – reminisce of the Catholics vs. Protestants fight in Ireland. Nice.
And yeah, it took them over 10 years to sell 1 million Prii worldwide. It doesn’t make sense that they would sell 1 million plug-ins for more money each in 6 years. I wouldn’t even say it was “common sense” Johnny, but I would say the inverse is outright stupid.
05/21, 9:42 PM
posted by:
Pazzo Canguri
I will NEVERRRRR buy a Plug in or Electric Vehicle for as long as i can live……..I would walk from the USA to Australia rather than buy a fn stupid electric or hybrid vehicle….
Better take a packed lunch though…..could get hungry on the way…
05/21, 10:16 PM
posted by:
elviososa
Plug-in hybrid is out…….pure EV is in!!!!
05/22, 12:04 AM
posted by:
psiclone
This administration is out of touch. Don’t impose market “demand” on us. Let us choose.
05/22, 1:51 AM
posted by:
jdasch1
Toyota is full of sh$t when it comes to this statement. They just don’t want to start down this slipperly-slope. The Volt has 100’s of thousands of people just waiting to test drive one and buy one…why not a Prius?? The big “T” may be doubting their duriability of their vehicle or they really don’t want to put a plug on everything. Ev’s are coming and I hope an American car company beats Toyota to the punch. Toyota knows how to build an EV (Rav4-EV), but the current old Toyota management needs to go. Bring on the free thinkers. Free energy is coming to a rooftop near you and cars love free energy. I am an early adopter of new things, so I’m waiting for the first mass produced plug in Hybrid….I just don’t like Toyota…they(Toyota Corp. not dealer) screwed me once and won’t get another chance. But I’m open minded on other brands…please??
05/22, 2:11 AM
posted by:
phil99
The powerplant in a PHEV can be a combustion engine or a fuel cell. The fuel for a fuel cell will be a hydrogen-rich liquid like methanol. Compressed hydrogen gas as a fuel will be a short-lived experiment.
Electric power from the wall is about one third the price of any liquid or gaseous fuel. For most short trips, drivers will use the cheaper ‘fuel’ — electricity — if they can.
Alcohol fuels like methanol and isobutanol are synthesized from carbon, hydrogen and oxygen. The chemical plants that produce these alcohol transportation fuels will be co-located with coal-fired power stations where there is a ready source of carbon to be captured. Nuclear power stations will be used to contribute heat and power for the synthesis of these alcohols.
The feature of PHEVs is that they are dual-fuel: stored electrical power and methanol (or whatever other liquid or gaseous fuel they are designed to use).
The fuel cell PHEV will have:
1.) a certain amount of battery storage (an electrochemical device) that can be opportunity charged if there is even a standard house socket available.
2.) a direct methanol fuel cell (an electrochemical device) that runs on a tank of methanol (CH3OH). Methanol was the fuel used by all the Indy 500 cars for 50 years until the corn farmers’ lobby got them to switch to inferior ethanol.
A number of ethanol plants are being reconfigured to produce isobutanol (C4H9OH) which is a better alcohol than ethanol (C2H5OH) on which to run combustion engines. Even 85% butanol can be run in gasoline engines without engine modification; and butanol doesn’t have the water problems of ethanol.
In China, people are already driving the PHEV made by BYD Auto. In 2011 those cars will be available in the U.S.
Toyota is in the process of putting an initial 500 PHEVs on the road.
Beyond Li-ion and Li iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries are Lithium-sulfur batteries. Li-sulfur batteries use more cost effective materials; have higher energy density; and operate well at freezing winter temperatures.
The various technologies will continue to evolve. The objective is to build vehicles that can run on electrical power and a range of synthesized hydrocarbon fuels.
For anyone who thinks batteries on their own will power vehicles, remember that a large amount of energy is required to climb hills; to provide heating in winter and to provide cooling in summer. Batteries don’t provide the energy density of a tank of liquid hydrocarbon fuel.
Another advatage of hydrocarbon fuel is that filling a tank with fuel is a lot faster and easier than charging a battery.
05/22, 9:27 AM
posted by:
letsgorange
If anything it sure blows that due to the goverment owned auto biz we will all be forced to drive econo boxes within 10 years with no personality. The auto as we know it will be nothing more than an after thought.
05/22, 12:06 PM
posted by:
A4
at least we’ll still have GTI’s.
05/22, 1:48 PM
posted by:
Z06ified
Toyota is just sour grapes because they don’t have the technology that GM has to create a plug-in hybrid of their own. It’s very obvious what they are doing, and its pretty juvenile actually.
I would buy a car like the Volt, if I set up a solar array on my house, which I just might do in a few years. Powered by the sun, and mostly funded by the government (solar tax credits). I wouldn’t own it as my only vehicle, but as a commuter? sure.
05/23, 4:28 PM
posted by:
DrFill
Prius is already offering solar power
Plug-in tech will only help you if you have a car with a garage
That’s part of the market
It’s a niche of a niche
Lithium-Ion is what will take hybrids to the next level
Can they be affordable, safe, and reliable?
Not yet
DrFill
05/24, 12:04 PM
posted by:
jdasch1
Fill – “plug in tech will only help you if you have a car with a garage” WTF??? I intend to let every one of my employees charge their car for free if they buy a plug in vehicle. Extension cords are sold at Home Depot to assist to plug in anywhere. Solar rooftops will benifit EVERYONE on the grid including yourself Fill. Its not a niche, its a way of life coming to everyone. If your car does not have a plug, your missing out. Free power will be offered to so many people, you won’t shop at a store that doesn’t offer it. Jump out of your box and stomp on it…the world will soon NOT run on only oil !!!!
05/24, 10:10 PM
posted by:
beatusmongous
One of the beautiful things about a Plug-In Hybrid is that you don’t actually HAVE to plug it in…
…ever.
The gas motor charges the battery. Of course, you’ll achieve higher mileage if you CAN plug it in, but you can still receive the basic benefits of the hybrid even without the grid power.
Those worried about the grid getting overtasked, think about my previous post: it took Toyota 10 years to sell 1,000,000 Prii worldwide. There are at least 100,000,000 cars operating in the U.S. alone. The current Prius is less than 1% of the car population, and I don’t think Plug-In Hybrids will sell as fast as the Prius did, especially with the higher price. It will be a long time before the grid is seriously impacted, and I’m sure our energy companies will be able to keep up with the demand.
Dr. Fill, the solar panels on the Prius only assist the AC system a bit. It’s really only a gimmick, nut I’m sure there are plenty who will jump on that bandwagon.
05/24, 10:13 PM
posted by:
beatusmongous
*but, not nut. I’m typing on my iPod again.