My data:http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/102209dnbuslifeafterclunkers.377526f.html

Sorry for the long outtake but it really puts the issue in perspective.

With few new cars on the lot and a tight supply of used vehicles, the staff needed to sell his car.

That sort of improvisation could become routine as auto retailers adjust to a leaner life after Cash for Clunkers. The $3 billion government stimulus program, which offered consumers $3,500 to $4,500 incentives to trade in their old gas guzzlers for new vehicles, left most new-car lots in the area half-empty.

Moreover, most dealerships are grappling with an unusually tight supply of used vehicles – hitting them on both sides of their lots and limiting consumer choices.

Don Herring of Don Herring Mitsubishi in Plano stands in his partially empty new-car lot. Dealers are facing the unusual problem of shortages in both new and used vehicles after Cash for Clunkers.

Shortages in either new or used vehicles are not that unusual. But local dealers say it’s rare to suffer both simultaneously.

The tight supplies are pushing prices up for both.

Other dealers say they continue to struggle with the highest used prices they have seen. Huth at Sam Pack is offering his salespeople $100 for every used car they can find outside of auctions and regular trades.

“If I can’t get you back to trading cars every three years, I can’t fill my used-car lot,” he said.

Although high wholesale prices have squeezed the profit margins on many used vehicles, the situation may ultimately bode well for new-vehicle sales and bring some balance back to the business.

“History tells me that when used-car values get this high, new-car sales take off,” Herring said. “At some point, the walk between new and used gets to be so small that people opt for a new vehicle.”

And the person saying the used market is tight due to scrappage is wrong. The stupid cash for clunkers program took exactly 0.2% of the cars in the U.S. off the road. That doesn’t move the needle.

There are plenty of used cars available, and prices are still down from what they were 2 years ago, especially for luxury cars and full size trucks/SUVs, although they have recovered from their lows this past spring.

Just because the DOW is back above 10,000 (just barely) doesn’t mean that the recession is suddenly over and everything can go back to the way it was overnight.

Unemployment in many states is still at or above 10%… and banks aren’t nearly as free with credit and loans as they were before all this mess started.

Things may be looking up for some folks, but the situation overall is still very precarious.

My bet is the unit number will be between 8M and 13M. Also, the weather today will be sunny but with a high chance of rain and heavy cloudiness, and I predict that next year there will be outbreaks of violence in the middle east. There is a good chance of snow in the Yukon, and whereas some stocks will be up, others will be down. I am a psychic.

Things are looking better. I have made 31% on my stock market investments so far this year (mostly mutual funds managed by a top 100 firm). Stock market is 6 months ahead of rest of economy. It will be slow coming out but a 20% increase in car sales is pretty easy after a down year as bad as it has been(5 million units down!!). You cannot sustain a 50% drop in car sales (over 15 million to 10 million) for long. Those missing vehicles have to be made up somehow especially after a huge scrappage program(cash for clunkers).

Having taken those statistics classes I WANT to agree with you, but I just can’t. I’m sure you love “figures lie and liars figure” even more! One of my undergrad majors was Poli-Sci (so, no, I’m not some MIT wunderkind or even a math-whiz in general); however, I distinctly remember learning how to massage statistics to “prove” “facts.” In my experience, your average person prefers anecdotal stories and normative knowledge over anything empirical. You could say that it’s because most folks have a lazy and fearful attitude about math (there’s a grain of truth to such an assertion), but I’d argue that it has more to do with most people feeling that they’ve been manipulated by numbers-quoting politicians, salesman, bar-flys, etc. If any one of us could truly be objective then statistics would be foolproof, but we just can’t eliminate the human element.

In fiscal-year 2009, 47% of Americans will pay NO income tax!!! Yeah, but In fiscal-year 2009, a MAJORITY of Americans will pay income tax (add a superscript linking to the 53% figure at the bottom of the page in .2 font). So which person should you believe? They both used the same numbers. That example is closer to the meaning of the Twain quote than your assertion that folks wouldn’t distrust figures if they only knew how they were derived. I think we’re conditioned to distrust the presentation and not necessarily the formulation of statistics.

As a result of the point laid out above, I’m also a lil’ distrustful of such a positive sales forecast. I want it to be correct; but, then, even if it is, it doesn’t bode well for Americans having learned their lesson about conspicuous consumption. We need a healthier correlation between demand and need before we’ll have a healthy and sustainable economy. Many of us think/hope that the demand we saw in August was simply a showing of Americans replacing necessary vehicles with more reliable ones. However, a lot of us are also hoping that Americans don’t get used to bargain-basement deals and taxpayer-funded giveaways that tamper with the machinations of the free-markets. Just some thoughts and a defense of ol’ Samuel Clemens.

p.s. I prefer Twain’s: I have never let my schooling interfere with my education.

I too find those predictions a little optimistic, however as late summer 2009 showed us, there is QUITE a lot of pent-up demand for new cars in the US. Will it get back to 16 million again? I doubt it, but I do see it rising signifigantly from it’s current state.

@ Bosley:

I hate that quote. Rather than throwing your hands up claiming they are all lies, just take a statistics class so you understand how they arrived at those projections.

“The statement refers to the persuasive power of numbers, the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions.” Wikipedia

I would rather see people eliminate debt and not spend money they don’t have. The recovery is about credit contraction. This is not an inventory led recession like in ’80, ’82, ’91, and ’01 this is a credit based recession and those look different than typical – deeper and longer (let the jokes begin on that).