To those of us who are familiar with the rapid advancements happening in the EV space, the idea that all vehicles will eventually be battery-powered is looking more and more like a given. But when a billionaire investor like Warren Buffet makes bold predictions about EV adoption, well, it makes headlines.
According to a report in the Houston Chronicle, Mr. Buffet told the president of Rice University’s Jesse H. Jones business school that he believes all new cars will be electric within 20 years.
As always, Buffet — the second-richest man in the world — puts his money where his mouth is. His investment firm made a $230 million investment over a year ago in BYD, a Chinese battery maker with a newfound focus on electric cars.
So is Buffet’s prediction realistic? It will be a few years before we know for sure, but the overwhelming industry consensus is toward electric vehicles. In fact, Buffet’s assertion might be rather conservative.
Twenty years accounts for the complete lifespan of roughly three generations of any given vehicle. Take the all-new BMW 7-Series, for example. The fifth-generation model was just introduced. 20 years from now, the seventh generation will be ending production, and the eighth will be right around the corner.
The specs for Tesla’s Model S — which will enter production in two years — sound pretty good already. Eighteen more years of battery advancement and infrastructure development should be enough for even the most stubborn automakers to get onto the EV bandwagon.
So, at first glance what sounds like an exaggerated sound-bite taken from an offhand remark might be a very sound prediction from a business genius.
